Tracking the materials and chemicals that sit at the chokepoints of energy transition, AI infrastructure, defence, and industrial supply chains — most of which remain invisible to mainstream analysis.
Semiconductor
High-speed chips (GaN/GaAs). Export controlled since July 2023.
China: 98% of production
Semiconductor
Fiber optics, IR optics. Export controlled alongside gallium.
China: 60% of refining
Semiconductor
Phosphide semiconductors, ITO displays. Limited substitutes.
Concentrated supply, low recycling
Semiconductor
Transistor gate dielectrics. Nuclear-grade. Concentrated supply.
Byproduct of zirconium refining
Semiconductor
Wafer fabrication. Reliant on Germany, Taiwan, Brazil.
Fab-grade purity bottleneck
Battery
LFP/NMC cathodes. Price collapsed 80% since 2022. Oversupply risk.
Oversupply cycle — watch restocking
Battery
Cathode stabilizer. 70% from DRC. Artisanal mining ESG risk.
DRC: 70% of global supply
Battery
High-energy density batteries. Indonesia dominance. Class 1 vs Class 2 split.
Indonesia: 50%+ of supply
Battery
Anodes. China dominates production. CBAM-relevant.
China: 70% of production
Energy Storage
Flow batteries, grid storage. Steel alloy demand competing.
Grid storage demand rising
Defence
Ammunition, flame retardants. China/Tajikistan: 80%+.
US: 100% import-dependent
Defence
Armor-piercing, tooling. Export restricted.
China: 80% of supply
Defence
Capacitors in every server/weapon system.
DRC: 60%+ of supply
Defence
Permanent magnets (Nd, Pr, Dy). Critical for motors, wind, defence.
China: 90% of refining
Industrial Chemical
Fertilizer, hydrogen carrier. Green ammonia emerging.
Energy transition pivot
Industrial Chemical
Chemical feedstock, marine fuel transition.
IMO 2030 marine fuel driver
Industrial Chemical
Mining leach agent. Tight supply = mining bottleneck.
Supply constrains mine output
Industrial Chemical
PVC, water treatment, alumina refining. Chlorine/Caustic pair.
Energy-intensive production
Industrial Chemical
Steelmaking flux, refrigerants, lithium processing.
Critical to lithium refining
Energy
Electrification backbone. Grid, EVs, renewables. Structural deficit looming.
Structural supply deficit by 2027
Energy
Nuclear renaissance. SMRs, data center power. Supply constrained.
SMR + data center demand surge
Energy
CdTe solar, thermoelectric cooling. Byproduct supply only.
Byproduct — no primary mines
Energy
Hydrogen fuel cells. Concentrated supply.
South Africa: 70%+ of supply
Energy
Battery cathodes, steel. South Africa, Gabon, Australia.
Diversified supply base